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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It frequently serves as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your squad in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround receives the prize. However, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or just the biggest upset.

However the latest field is distinctly unique. The pool of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division winners declining and recent also-rans ascending collectively. Under an typical year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this turbulent and entertaining season, he's competing with multiple other elite candidates.

Below is how the projected vote should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open targets consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to conjure magic out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the organization with the immense hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

In a typical season, he would be the runaway choice. But the current is not a typical season!

Where his case runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But he falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just a single spot ahead of peers.

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